Search results for "Systemic risk"
showing 10 items of 25 documents
Systemic Risk in a Structural Model of Bank Default Linkages
2018
Abstract We study a structural model of individual bank defaults across the banking sector; banks are interconnected through their exposure to a common risk factor. The paper introduces a systemic risk measure based on the default frequency in the banking sector; this measure depends non-linearly on the factor's loadings, in contrast to previous systemic risk measures that depend linearly on loadings. We estimate loadings in the U.S. banking system over the course of the last 36 years; we find that they have considerably increased over time and identify four major regimes. Our measure shows that systemic risk became critical in the last of our four regimes, covering the most recent time per…
Early warning of systemic risk in global banking: eigen-pair R number for financial contagion and market price-based methods
2021
AbstractWe analyse systemic risk in the core global banking system using a new network-based spectral eigen-pair method, which treats network failure as a dynamical system stability problem. This is compared with market price-based Systemic Risk Indexes (SRIs), viz. Marginal Expected Shortfall (MES), Delta Conditional Value-at-Risk (Delta-CoVaR), and Conditional Capital Shortfall Measure of Systemic Risk (SRISK) in a cross-border setting. Unlike paradoxical market price based risk measures, which underestimate risk during periods of asset price booms, the eigen-pair method based on bilateral balance sheet data gives early-warning of instability in terms of the tipping point that is analogou…
Contagion and Bank Runs in a Multi-Agent Financial System
2012
In this work we explore contagion from one institution to another that can stem from the existence of a network of financial contracts. In fact, in modern financial systems, an intricate web of claims and obligations links the balance sheets of a wide variety of intermediaries (banks, for instance) into a network structure of interdependencies that have created an environment for feedback elements to generate amplified responses to shocks to the financial system. Small shocks, which initially affect only a few institutions, can indeed spread by contagion to the rest of the financial sector and cause a crisis in the connected intermediaries. Whether the financial crisis does spread depends c…
Nadzór makroostrożnościowy w Unii Europejskiej. Jak bardzo potrzebny? Jak bardzo skuteczny?
2014
2013 ECONOMY MOMENTUM CHALLENGES FOR NEXT 10 YEARS
2013
Last 5 years of almost unprecedented financial market turmoil it s still generating comprehensive crisis theories, market paradigms and nevertheless unprecedented situations. The aim of this paper is to explain 2013 milestone momentum for new market rules and regulations implementation - Basel III. The expected immediate cushion factors as well the possible negative impact on financial markets is presented from financial institutions perspective. Finally, the paper seeks for an exploratory after 10 years scenario connected with imminent market evolution and tendencies.
Special issue of Quantitative Finance on ‘Interlinkages and Systemic Risk’
2015
This special issue of Quantitative Finance collects eight papers on the relation between interlinkages and systemic risk. The papers cover several types of interlinkages and follow different approaches, from agent-based modelling to empirical investigation of large and sometimes confidential data. The special issue collects some of the contributions presented at the international workshop‘Interlinkages and systemic risk ’ , which took place in Ancona (Italy) on 4 – 5 July 2013. The workshop, organized within the research project‘. New tools in the credit network modeling with agents ’ heterogeneity ’ funded by the Institute for New Economic Thinking, was attended by a balanced mix of schola…
Empirical Analyses of Networks in Finance
2018
Abstract The recent global financial crisis has triggered a huge interest in the use of network concepts and network tools to better understand how instabilities can propagate through the financial system. The literature is today quite vast, covering both theoretical and empirical aspects. This review concentrates on empirical work, and associated methodologies, concerned with the evaluation of the fragility and resilience of financial and credit markets. The first part of the review examines the literature on systemic risk that arise from banks mutual exposures. These exposures stem primarily from interbank lending and derivative positions, but also, indirectly, from common holdings of oth…
Multi-Agent Financial Network (MAFN) Model of US Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDO)
2014
A database driven multi-agent model has been developed with automated access to US bank level FDIC Call Reports that yield data on balance sheet and off balance sheet activity, respectively, in Residential Mortgage Backed Securities (RMBS) and Credit Default Swaps (CDS). The simultaneous accumulation of RMBS assets on US banks’ balance sheets and also large counterparty exposures from CDS positions characterized the $2 trillion Collateralized Debt Obligation (CDO) market. The latter imploded at the end of 2007 with large scale systemic risk consequences. Based on US FDIC bank data, that could have been available to the regulator at the time, the authors investigate how a CDS negative carry …
The impact of systemic and illiquidity risk on financing with risky collateral
2015
Abstract Repurchase agreements (repos) are one of the most important sources of funding liquidity for many financial investors and intermediaries. In a repo, some assets are given by a borrower as collateral in exchange of funding. The capital given to the borrower is the market value of the collateral, reduced by an amount termed as haircut (or margin). The haircut protects the capital lender from loss of value of the collateral contingent on the borrower׳s default. For this reason, the haircut is typically calculated with a simple Value at Risk estimation of the collateral for the purpose of preventing the risk associated to volatility. However, other risk factors should be included in th…